- Murray Leibbrandt (PI)
- Cally Ardington
- Justine Burns
- Martin Wittenberg
- Cecil Mlatsheni
- Ingrid Woolard
- Malcolm Keswell
South Africa provides a unique setting for analyzing the interaction between public programmes and private transfers in an environment of rapid social change. Post-apartheid South Africa is a society undergoing a combination of rapidly expanding opportunities for the non-white population, combined with enormous challenges. With a severe unemployment problem and the rapid growth of the HIV/AIDs pandemic, rapid social change has not relieved the stresses of day-to-day survival faced by many South African families. Given the combination of high unemployment, the impact of HIV/AIDS on the working age population and a welfare policy that is dominated by an extensive state old-age pension policy, family support structures in South Africa are unusually complex. For many poor households, major resources flow into families from the elderly, while working age adults and children are often net consumers of resources.
This project brought together researchers from the United States and South Africa to analyze patterns of family support and intergenerational transfers in South Africa. In examining these dynamics, the project proposed to use a combination of existing survey data and new data to be collected in the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS). In addition, dissemination of the CAPS data was an important aim of the project, as all members of the collaborating team had a strong commitment to public release.
CAPS data was used to look at a variety of outcomes for young people, including sexual activity, pregnancy, schooling transitions, employment transitions, and intergenerational transfers. The project also used a number of other South African data sets to analyze these and related issues. 20 papers and 5 book chapters were published out of the project, with another 25 papers presented at conferences and/or under review. As can be seen from the list of publications in the Output and Publications section, a large number of graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and faculty members at UCT, Michigan, and Princeton wrote papers supported by the project.
In addition, the CAPS dataset was successfully continued and expanded, including the addition of new content focusing on intergenerational support systems. Moreover, considerable project resources were devoted to the preparation of user-friendly public files that are distributed through the CAPS website. Public launches of CAPS data with user workshops have been held at the University of Cape Town and CAPS data sets were distributed through exhibits at the 2007 and 2008 meetings of the Population Association of America. There are over 500 registered users of CAPS, representing a wide range of countries and institutions.
The Cape Area Panel Study
CAPS is a longitudinal survey of young people and their extended family networks in Cape Town. The first wave was designed and implemented with support from a previous NICHD grant, "Families, Communities, and Youth Outcomes in South Africa" (R01-HD39788, P.I. David Lam), a collaboration between the University of Michigan and the University of Cape Town. When the funding application was submitted we planned to conduct a second wave of CAPS in 2005, three years after Wave 1. Because we were able to secure additional funding from sources such as the Mellon Foundation and a supplement from the NIH Office of AIDS Research, we were able to interview 1/3 of the sample in 2003 and the remaining 2/3 of the sample in 2004. The 2003 interview included special modules related to sexual activity and HIV/AIDS, while the 2004 interview included special modules related to youth labor market activity. The 2003 and 2004 surveys are collectively considered CAPS Wave 2. We conducted a full re-interview of all young CAPS respondents in 2005 (Wave 3). As proposed in the funding application for this project, we added a great deal of content related to private intergenerational transfers, public transfers (such as the Old Age Pension and Child Support Grant), and major household events such as illness, death, and job loss.
Wave 4 was not in the original plans for the current project and funding was not adequate to conduct another wave in 2006. Wave 4 resulted from a very fruitful integration of the current NICHD project with a project supported by the National Institute on Aging (R01-AG-20275, "Poverty, Inequality and Health in Economic Development") under the leadership of Anne Case from Princeton University. Both projects looked at intergenerational support in South Africa, with the NICHD project focusing on the perspective of young people and the NIA project focusing on the perspective of older people. We decided that an integrated survey asking parallel questions about intergenerational support to both young and old respondents would be extremely useful. Combing resources from the two grants we were able to conduct a complete an additional wave of CAPS, interviewing all young respondents for the fourth time while adding new interviews of all individuals aged 50 and over who lived in CAPS households at the 2002 baseline survey.
- Anderson, K., Beutel, A and Maughan-Brown, B. (2007) “HIV/AIDS risk perceptions and first sexual intercourse among youth in Cape Town, South Africa” International Family Planning Perspectives 33(3): 98-105.
- Ardington, C., Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M. and Levinsohn, J. (2004) “Savings, Insurance and Debt over the Post-apartheid Period” South African Journal of Economics 72(3): 604-640.
- Ardington, C., Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M. and Welch, M. (2006) “The Sensitivity of Estimates of post-Apartheid Changes in South African Poverty and Inequality to Key Data Imputations” Economic Modelling 23(5): 822-835.
- Ardington, C., Lam, D. and Leibbrandt, M. (2008) “Explaining the Persistence of Racial Gaps in Schooling in South Africa”. Paper presented at the 2008 meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans.
- Ardington, C., Case, A. and Hosegood, V. (2009) "Labor Supply Responses to Large Social Transfers: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa" American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1(1):22-48.
- Ardington, C., Case, A., Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M., Menendez, A. and Olgiati, A. (forthcoming) “The impact of AIDS on intergenerational transfers in South Africa: Evidence from the Cape Area Panel Study” Research on Aging
- Ardington, C. and Leibbrandt, M. (forthcoming) “Orphanhood and Schooling in South Africa: Trends in the vulnerability of orphans between 1993 and 2005” Economic Development and Cultural Change
- Branson, N. (2006) “The South African Labour Market 1993-2005: A Cohort Analysis” University of Cape Town, SALDRU Working Paper No.7.
- Bray, R., Gooskens, I., Kahn, L., Moses, S. and Seekings, J. (2008) “Growing Up in the New South Africa: Childhood and Adolescence in Post-Apartheid Cape Town” Unpublished manuscript, Centre for Social Science Research, University of Cape Town.
- Brick, K. and Mlatsheni, C. (2007) “Examining the Degree of Duration Dependence in the Western Cape Labour Market” University of Cape Town SALDRU Working Paper No. 10.
- Case, A., Menendez, A. and Ardington, C. (2005) “Health Seeking Behaviour in Northern KwaZulu Natal ” University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 116.
- Case, A. and Ardington, C. (2006) “The Impact of Parental Death on School Outcomes: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa” Demography 43(3): 401-420.
- Collins, D. and Leibbrandt, M. (2007) “The Financial Impact of HIV/AIDS in Poor Households in South Africa” AIDS 21 (Supplement 7): S75-S82.
- De Lannoy, A. (2007) "Modeling the Impact of AIDS on the Perceived Value of Education Using Survey Data" University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 189
- De Lannoy, A. (2007) "The Stuff that Dreams are Made of…Narratives on Educational Decision-Making Among Young Adults in Cape Town." University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 190
- De Lannoy, A. (2007) "Educational Decision-Making in an Era of AIDS: Exploring the Narratives of Affected Young Adults in the Cape Flats" University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 191
- Dinkelman, T., Lam, D. and Leibbrandt, M. (2007) “Household and Community Income, Economic Shocks and Risky Sexual Behavior of Young Adults: Evidence from the Cape Area Panel Study 2002 and 2005” AIDS (21 Suppl 7):S49-S56.
- Dinkelman, T., Lam, D. and Leibbrandt, M. (2008) “Linking Poverty and Income Shocks to Risky Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Panel Study of Young Adults in Cape Town” South African Journal of Economics 76(S1):53-74.
- Godlonton, S. and Burns, J. (2006) “Social Networks, Employment and Worker Discouragement: Evidence from South Africa” University of Cape Town SALDRU Working Paper No. 6.
- Keswell, M. and Eyal, K. (2007) “Identifying Pure-Income Effect in an Emprical Model of Labour Supply: the case of the South African Social Pension” University of Stellenbosch Working Paper.
- Lam, D., Ardington, C., Branson, N., Case, A., Leibbrandt, M., Menendez, A., Seekings, J. and Sparks, M. (2008) The Cape Area Panel Study: Overview and Technical Documentation of Waves 1-2-3-4” The University of Cape Town.
- Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M. and Ranchhod, V. (2005) "Old-Age Pensions and Joint Retirement Decisions in South Africa" Presented at General Conference of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, July 2005, Tours, France.
- Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M. and Ranchhod, V. (2006) "Labor Force Withdrawal of the Elderly in South Africa" in Jane Menken and Barney Cohen, editors, Advancing the Research Agenda on Aging in Africa, National Academies Press, Washington DC.
- Lam, D., Leibbrandt, M. and Mlatsheni, C. (forthcoming) "Education and Youth Unemployment in South Africa" in Ravi Kanbur and Jan Svejnar, editors, Labour Markets and Economic Development, Routledge.
- Lam, D., Ardington, C. and Leibbrandt, M. (2008) "Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in Progress through School in Urban South Africa" Presented at Tenth BREAD Conference on Development Economics, Princeton University, Population Studies Center Research Report 08-632.
- Leibbrandt, M., Naidoo, P., Poswell, L. and Welch, M. (forthcoming) “Measuring Recent Changes in South African Poverty and Inequality using 1996 and 2001 census data” In H. Bhorat. and R. Kanbur (Eds). Poverty and Policy in Post-apartheid South Africa. HSRC Press.
- Leibbrandt, M. and Mlatsheni, C. (2008)“Simulating the employment prospects of rural migrants in an urban setting: What can we learn from survey data?” In Migrants’ Experiences within the South African Labour Market, Voyage Ensemble - Special Issue, Scalabrini Centre of Cape Town.
- Leibbrandt, M., Woolard, I. and Woolard, C. (2009)“Poverty and Inequality Dynamics in South Africa: Post-apartheid Developments in the Light of the Long-Run Legacy” Chapter 10 in Aron, J., Kahn, B. and Kingdon, G. (Eds.) South African Economic Policy under Democracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Leibbrandt, M., Levinsohn, J. and McCrary, J. (2005) “Incomes in South Africa since the fall of apartheid” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 11384.
- Maughan Brown, B. (2006) “Attitudes towards people with HIV/AIDS: Stigma and its determinants amongst young adults in Cape Town” South African Review of Sociology 37(2):165-188.
- Maughan-Brown, B. (2007)"Experiences and Perceptions of HIV?AIDS-Related Stigma Amongst People on Antiretroviral Treatment in Khayelitsha, South Africa." University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 185.
- Maughan-Brown, B. (2006) "Quantifying Stigma in the Adult Population of Cape Town." University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 165.
- Mlatsheni, C., Lam, D. and Leibbrandt, M. (2005) "Youth Aspirations, Expectations, Education and Employment" Presented at General Conference of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, July 2005, Tours, France.
- Naidoo, N., Leibbrandt, M. and Dorrington, R. (2008) “Magnitudes, Personal Characteristics and Activities of Eastern Cape Migrants: A Comparison with Other Migrants and with Non-migrants Using Data from the 1996 and 2001 Censuses” South African Journal of Demography 13(2).
- Seekings, J. (2008) "Beyond ‘Fluidity’: Kinship and Households as Social Projects" University of Cape Town Centre for Social Science Research Working Paper No. 237.
- Sienaert, A. (2008) “The Labour Supply Effects of the South African State Old Age Pension: Theory, Evidence and Implications” University of Cape Town SALDRU Working Paper No. 20.
- Wittenberg, M. and Collinson, M. (2007) "Restructuring of Households in Rural South Africa: Reflections on Average Household Size in the Agincourt Sub-district 1992-2003." University of Cape Town SADLRU Working Paper No. 12.
- Wittenberg, M. (2008) “The Intra-Household Allocation of Work and Leisure in South Africa” Social Indicators Research.
- Woolard, I. and Leibbrandt, M. (forthcoming) “The Measurement of Poverty in South Africa: Some Technical Issues” In Hoebink, P and Desai, A. (Eds). The Poverty Challenge: Poverty Reduction in South Africa, India and Brazil. Durban: University of KwaZulu-Natal Press.