Profile of young NEETs in South Africa

Key messages

The South African youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) rate has been consistently over 30% and it has worsened over the past ten years. The young NEETs are a heterogeneous group that is predominantly female, black, slightly older youth (20-24), reside in urban areas, live in income poverty and have less than, or only, a matric or matric equivalent. The majority of young NEETs are unemployed (43.9% are searching unemployed and 24.4% are discouraged job seekers) and just under a third (31.7%) are inactive (i.e., ‘disengaged’ from the labour market). A large proportion of searching unemployed NEETs are new entrants into the labour market and many of them have been looking for work for extended periods without success. There is a need for place-based targeted interventions to help different young NEETs successfully enter the labour market or re-engage in education and training activities.

Introduction

Concerns around large groups of ‘socially excluded’ youth continue to dominate the public and policy discourses in South Africa. And, more than two decades after South Africa transitioned to democracy, the lives of young people continue to be a struggle. In 2020, more than 5.5 million (61.6%) of the young people between the ages of 15 and 24 years continued to live in income-poor households (Statistics South Africa, 2020a). While slightly more than 1.6 million young people are unemployed according to the official definition in 2022 (a 63.9% unemployment rate), a little over 3.5 million (34.3% of all youth) are not in education, employment or training (NEET) (Statistics South Africa, 2022). Young people who are NEET are arguably the most vulnerable group in the labour market and at risk of social exclusion, especially when they have been NEET for a prolonged period.

Drawing on the 2013–2022 first-quarter Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) data and 2018 General Household Survey (GHS) data, this research brief presents a profile of NEET youth aged 15 to 24 years in South Africa. We focus on this age group as it is a crucial development stage during which young people transition from adolescence to independent young adulthood. It is also the international definition of youth as applied by the United Nations (United Nations, 2013).

Trends of the youth NEET rate in South Africa[1]

The share of young people between the ages of 15 and 24 years who are NEET in South Africa was 34.3% in the first quarter of 2022, equivalent to over 3.5 million youth. Drawing on first-quarter QLFS data for the past ten years, Figure 1 illustrates that the NEET rate has been consistently higher than one-third of the youth population. Comparisons between the youth NEET rate of 2013 with 2022 indicate that the problem of youth being NEET has worsened over the past ten years. While the rate was 30.2% in 2013, it increased to 34.3% in 2022, although it did fluctuate over the period[2]. Of interest are the changes in the rate between 2020 and 2022, a period which coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic. While the rate was 31.7% in 2020, it decreased to 29.9% in 2021, before increasing sharply to 34.3% in 2022. These changes are partly explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown measures which disrupted economic activities. Given the adverse impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had, and continues to have, on education and the labour market, the NEET rate in the country is likely to continue increasing in the near future.

Figure 1: Trends in the proportion of young people who are NEET in South Africa 2013–2022.

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

The high and increasing NEET rate shows that South Africa has failed to meet the target of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) number 8, Target 8.6, of substantially reducing the proportion of NEET youth by 2020 (see Cieslik et al., 2021; United Nations, 2022). This is a cause of great concern as high NEET rates have the potential to undermine social cohesion and provoke political and economic tensions as the levels of frustration and impatience increase among young NEETs. In addition, if not addressed, the NEET problem can have long-lasting consequences for young people as it reduces future employment opportunities and earnings, which in turn can lead to physical and mental health problems.

Who are the young NEETs in South Africa?

Table 1 illustrates that NEETs are a heterogeneous group of young people, and this heterogeneity has persisted over the past ten years. The first-quarter data of 2022 shows that NEETs are predominantly female, black, slightly older youth (20-24) and reside in urban areas. The majority of NEET youth in the country have less than, or only, a matric or matric equivalent. These statistics show that race, gender and education play a significant role in influencing the vulnerability of young people in South Africa.

Further, Table 1 shows that more of these young NEETs are unemployed (43.9% are searching unemployed and 24.4% are discouraged job seekers) than inactive (31.7%) and that the proportion of youth who are inactive has, in fact, decreased since 2013.

Table 1: Overview of NEET youth in South Africa

	Indicator		2013		2022
			Total number	Percentage	Total number	Percentage
Total SA population:	Total youth  (15-24 yrs.)		10 176 081		10 229 911
	NEET youth (15-24 yrs.)		3 074 501	30.2	3 513 134	34.3
Of those young people who are NEET:	Status: Unemployed Discouraged job-seeker Inactive		1 334 076 695 676 1 044 748	43.4 22.6 34.0	1 541 797 856 577 1 114 760	43.9 24.4 31.7
	Gender:	Male	1 386 631	45.1	1 727 857	49.2
		Female	1 687 869	54.9	1 785 276	50.8
	Race:	Black	2 673 479	87.0	3 110 120	88.5
		Coloured	272 956	8.9	303826	8.7
		Asian/Indian	35 792	1.2	32 530	0.9
		White	92 274	3.0	66 658	1.9
	Geo type:	Rural	1 289 673	42.0	1 344 123	38.3
		Urban	1 784 827	58.0	2 169 011	61.7
	Age category:	15-19	612 625	19.9	701 876	20.0
		20-24	2 461 876	80.1	2 811 258	80.0
	Education level:	Less than matric Matric Any tertiary[3]	1 827 871 1 133 490 101 809	59.7 37.0 3.3	1 576 559 1 783 885 132 823	45.1 51.1 3.8

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

In addition, Table 2 indicates that of the NEET youth who are unemployed (i.e., ‘engaged’ in the labour market), 49.7% are long-term unemployed as they have been searching for work for more than a year. Table 3 shows that a large proportion of the searching unemployed are new entrants into the labour market as they have never worked before (80.6%). Table 4 also shows that of the new entrant NEET youths who are searching unemployed, about 41.1% have been in the labour market looking for work for at least 3 years.

These statistics clearly indicate the attempts of large numbers of young people to look for work for extended periods, but unsuccessfully. The situation increases the risk of scarring from long-term exclusion from work opportunities while wanting to work and underpins the urgency of finding ways to support these young people in their search for (re)connection.

Table 2: NEET youth by unemployment and inactive sub-groups

		2013		2022
		Total number	Percentage	Total number	Percentage
Engaged	Short-term unemployed	534 680	26.2	345 630	14.3
	Long-term unemployed	799 396	39.2	1 196 166	49.7
	Discouraged	695 676	34.1	856 577	35.6
	Seasonal workers	12 176	0.6	10 541	0.4
Engaged total		2 041 928	100	2 407 056	100
Not engaged (‘inactive’)	Homemakers	504 854	56.0	339 148	44.3
	Health reasons	132 605	14.7	123 661	16.2
	Other inactive	263 826	29.3	302 183	39.5
Not engaged total		901 274	100	764 991	100

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. The total number of NEET youths in the engaged and not engaged categories does not add up to the total number of NEET youths who are unemployed and inactive because we excluded from this analysis the following youths: those (1) who reported being students under the reasons for being inactive; (2) who did not give a reason for why they did not want to work; (3) who gave a reason that was specified as other reasons and  (4) who gave as a reason that they had retired or were too old to work – the latter of which seems incompatible with the age group under consideration. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

Table 2 further shows that of the NEET youth who are inactive (i.e., ‘disengaged’ from the labour market), 44.3% (a decrease from 56.0% in 2013) are inactive due to homemaker responsibilities. Of significance, although expected, is that the majority of inactive young homemakers are female (78.4%). The ‘Other inactive’ group, consists of young people who are inactive because they are pregnant, lack money to pay for transport to look for work, are too young to work or are voluntarily not working[4]. Compared to other NEET groups, the inactive NEET group is highly diverse, and such diversity poses a major challenge for policymakers. Accordingly, there is need for greater efforts to identify inactive NEETs and understand their needs.

Table 3: NEET youth by unemployment status

	2013		2022
Unemployment Status	Total Number	Percentage	Total Number	Percentage
Job loser	237 508	17.8	201 008	13.0
Job leaver	54 934	4.1	31 827	2.1
New entrant	976 222	73.2	1 243 893	80.6
Re-entrant	44 941	3.4	30 493	2.0
Other – last worked > 5 years ago	20 472	1.5	35 575	2.3
Total	1 334 076	100	1 541 797	100

Note: Sample restricted to NEET youths who are searching unemployed. Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

Table 4: New entrant NEET youth by time spent in the labour market looking for work

	2013		2022
Time in the labour market looking for work	Total number	Percentage	Total number	Percentage
Less than 3 months	138 642	14.2	95 462	7.8
3 months – less than 6 months	61 042	6.3	59 852	4.9
6 months – less than 9 months	26 75	2.7	16 766	1.4
9 months – less than 1 year	78 105	8.0	39 177	3.2
1 year – less than 3 years	376 354	38.6	503 363	41.1
3 years – 5 years	183 430	18.8	265 066	21.7
More than 5 years	112 474	11.5	243 999	19.9
Total	976 222	100	1 223 686	100

Notes: Sample restricted to NEET youths who are searching unemployed and new entrants in the labour market. Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

Where are the young NEETs in South Africa?

Figure 2 shows that in 2022, the bulk of young NEETs are concentrated in Gauteng (23.1%), KwaZulu-Natal (20.0%), and the Eastern Cape (13.2%) and these proportions have not changed much since 2013. Further, Figure 3 shows that youth NEET rates also vary across provinces (darker colours are provinces with high NEET rates, and lighter colours show lower rates), with relatively lower rates observed in Limpopo (30.9%) and the Western Cape (31.4%), while higher rates are observed in the Northern Cape (43.7%) and North West (39.7%).  The increasing intensity in the colour scheme from 2013 to 2022 indicates a general increase in the youth NEET rates for all the provinces.

 Figure 2: Distribution of young NEETs by province

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

Figure 4 presents a complete picture of the evolution of the youth NEET rates across provinces over the past ten years. It is clear that as for the national average, NEET rates have increased for all provinces between 2013 and 2022, with a significant increase registered for the Northern Cape. However, the provincial rates are fluctuating more compared to national rates. It is also evident that the national average of 34.4% masks significant disparities across provinces, as rates for the Northern Cape and North West are consistently above the national average, while the rates for Limpopo and the Western Cape are consistently below the national average.

Figure 3: NEET youth rates across provinces

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

The differences between provinces are quite pronounced, suggesting that young NEETs are not homogeneous across the provinces. Overall, the provincial rates and trends highlight the need to understand the profile of young NEETs at the sub-national level to allow for the design of place-based interventions aimed at re-engaging young NEETs in the labour market and education activities.

 Figure 4: Evolution of the youth NEET rates by province

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2013-2022 QLFS quarter one data.

Who are the young NEETs in income poverty?

Drawing on the 2018 General Household Survey (GHS) data[5] to complement our understanding of NEET youth, it should further be noted that 58.4% of 15–24-year-olds who are NEET live in income poverty, i.e. in households with an income of less than R1183 per person per month (Statistics South Africa, 2018a)[6]. The majority of NEET youth in income-poor households are women (56.9%) and reside in rural areas (52.6%). More than three-quarters (78.9%) of these income-poor young people are in the 20–24-year age group and a massive 98.1% of them have less than, or only, a matric or matric equivalent.

Table 5: Overview of NEET youth by household income-poor status

	2018 GHS
	Indicator		Total number	Percentage
	Total youth (15-24 yrs.)		9 532 726
	NEET youth		3 229 911	34.0
Of those young people who are NEET:	Income-poor		1 875 265	58.4
Of those young NEETs who are income poor:	Gender:	Male Female	809 035 1 875 265	43.1 56.9
	Unemployment status:	Unemployed Discouraged Inactive	756 017 348 681 770 567	40.3 18.6 41.1
	Location:	Rural Urban	986 253 889 013	52.6 47.4
	Age category:	15-19 20-24	395 887 1 479 379	21.1 78.9
	Education level:	Less than matric Matric Any tertiary[7]	738 692 714 141 27 905	49.9 48.2 1.9

Notes: Point estimates are weighted using person weights. Source: Own calculations using 2018 GHS.

Implications of the findings

Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the South African government, civil society, and the private sector have invested heavily in numerous programmes and interventions geared towards supporting young people’s transitions from adolescence to adulthood, with a focus on education and employment. However, these interventions appear to have been ineffective as the NEET rate remains persistently high and has even increased in recent years. Our findings indicate that most young NEETs are engaged in the labour market as they want to work but have been looking for work for extended periods without success. Further, the findings highlight that South African NEET youths are a heterogeneous group facing a multitude of deprivations, among them poor labour market prospects (a high proportion in long-term unemployment), low education levels, and high levels of household poverty. These deprivations tend to intersect as income poverty influences education levels, which in turn impacts labour market outcomes. Collectively, these deprivations and their intersections make NEET youths particularly vulnerable in terms of labour market participation and social exclusion.

To address these deprivations, South African policymakers must recognise that young NEETs are a heterogeneous group with different needs and requirements. There is a need for place-based targeted interventions to help the different NEET youths who can be searching unemployed, discouraged job seekers, or inactive, to successfully enter the labour market or re-engage in education and training activities. For example, young NEETs who have completed less than their final year of secondary education may wish to re-enter the schooling system and complete their secondary education, while those who did not manage to pass their final high school exams may want to re-write their matric exams. On the other hand, those who struggle to find work may need to gain access to an intermediary programme that connects them to the labour market. The Presidential Youth Employment Intervention (PYEI) is one such intervention, as it aims to better support young people on their pathways from learning to earning (Dicks, 2020). In addition, there is need for interventions that increase motivation and encouragement to counter the harmful effects of long-term unemployment and unsuccessful job search.

 

[1] The young people not in education, employment or training (the youth NEET rate) rate is defined as the number of young persons who are not in education, employment or training as a percentage of the total youth population aged 15-24 years old.

[2] Our NEET rates are slightly lower than the one reported by Statistics South Africa because we reclassified all inactive youths who indicated being students/scholars, while also reporting that they did not attend any educational institution as students/scholars.

[3] Youth with “Any tertiary” education are those youths with at least 13 years of education; these youths have the following qualifications: 13 years – Certificate with grade 12/Std. 10, diploma with grade 12/ Std. 10, N5/NTC 5, N6/NTC 6, Higher Diploma; 15 years – Post Higher Diploma (Masters; Doctoral), Bachelors Degree; 16 years – Bachelors Degree and Post Graduate Diploma, Honours Degree and 18 years – Higher Degree (Masters/PhD).

[4] In the first quarter of 2022, the ‘Other inactive’ NEETS were distributed as follows: pregnant: 11.4%; lack money to pay for transport to look for work: 19.5%; too young to work: 30.0% and voluntarily not working: 39.0%.

[5] One key question (“If a suitable job had been offered or circumstances had allowed, would … have been able to start work or a business in the last week – Monday to Sunday?”) required to derive the employment status variable is missing in the 2019 and 2020 GHSs. Accordingly, we are unable to derive the NEET rate in these two most recent surveys. Hence we use the 2018 GHS which has all the questions necessary to derive the employment status variable.

[6] R1183 is the rand value, in 2018 prices, of Statistics South Africa’s upper-bound poverty line, which refers to the food poverty line plus the average amount derived from non-food items of households whose food expenditure is equal to the food poverty line (Statistics South Africa, 2018b).

[7] Youth with “Any tertiary” education are those youths with at least 13 years of education; these youths have the following qualifications: 13 years – Certificate with grade 12/Std. 10, diploma with grade 12/ Std. 10, N5/NTC 5, N6/NTC 6, Higher Diploma; 15 years – Post Higher Diploma (Masters; Doctoral), Bachelors Degree; 16 years – Bachelors Degree and Post Graduate Diploma, Honours Degree and 18 years – Higher Degree (Masters/PhD).

 

References

Cieslik, K., Barford, A. and Vira, B. (2021) ‘Young people not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) in sub-Saharan Africa: Sustainable Development Target 8.6 missed and reset’, Journal of Youth Studies. Taylor \& Francis, pp. 1–22.

Dicks, R. (2020) ‘The Presidential Youth Employment Intervention – Five Priority Actions to Accelerate Youth Pathways into the Economy Over the Next Five Years. The Presidency’.

Statistics South Africa (2020a) ‘General Household Survey. Pretoria: Stats SA. Analysis by Authors’. Available at: https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/887.

Statistics South Africa (2013-2022) ‘Quarterly Labour Force Survey 2013 – 2022, Quarter 1, Pretoria: Stats SA. Analysis by authors.’ Available at: https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/902.

Statistics South Africa (2018a) ‘General Household Survey. Pretoria: Stats SA. Analysis by Authors.’ Available at: https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/801.

Statistics South Africa (2018b) ‘National Poverty Lines, Statistical release P0310.1. Statistics South Africa.’ Available at: http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P03101/P031012018.pdf.

United Nations (2013) ‘Definition of youth – United Nations Youth’. Available at: https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf, accessed 23 June 2022.

United Nations (2022) ‘8 Decent work and economic growth – Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all.’ https://unric.org/en/sdg-8/#, accessed 23 June 2022.